In recent years, lethal violence has remained firmly in the headlines. In the aftermath of the Arab uprisings, for instance, violence erupted in Libya and Syria, with the latter experiencing particularly high levels of lethality ever since. Honduras, Mexico, and Venezuela have been exhibiting a high incidence of violent deaths in the face of ongoing gang and drug wars. In fact, some of the world’s highest homicide rates are found in these countries. Volatility in the levels of violence in the Central African Republic, Egypt, and Ukraine serve as reminders that episodes of great lethality can be short-lived and concentrated. Meanwhile, in many other countries around the world, enduring trends hold the promise that levels of violence may continue to drop.

This chapter analyses changes in the distribution and intensity of lethal violence by comparing newly gathered data for the period 2007–12 with data for the period 2004–09, which formed the basis of research presented in the 2011 edition of the Global Burden of Armed Violence (GBAV) (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2011). Overall, global levels of lethal violence appear to be in decline; yet a closer look reveals that while most national homicide rates have been stable or decreasing over the long term, a few states have been experiencing volatile or increasing levels of violence.

Figure 2.1 Distribution of the victims of lethal violence per year, 2007–12

^{Note: The figure is not intended to reflect proportions.
Source: Geneva Declaration Secretariat (2014)}

Based on a detailed analysis of information in the GBAV 2014 database, this chapter presents lethal violence averages for the period 2007–12 and reviews changes in rates for the entire period for which data is available (2004–12). The chapter continues to use the ‘unified approach’ to lethal violence that was introduced in the previous edition of this report.¹ The approach covers conflict, criminal, and interpersonal forms of violence and includes data from a large variety of sources on homicide, conflict, and other forms of violence.

In highlighting medium- and long-term changes in lethal violence as well as the most recent available figures on violent deaths, the chapter also draws attention to improvements in the collection of data. Indeed, the availability of more refined data allows for more accurate estimates and for the unpacking of patterns in lethal violence (see Box 2.2). To some extent, improvements in the collection and monitoring of national data on lethal violence for the period 2004–12 may be linked to efforts under way in the context of the post-2015 development agenda, its proposed goal on peaceful and inclusive societies, and associated targets and indicators (see Chapter One).

In highlighting medium- and long-term changes in lethal violence as well as the most recent available figures on violent deaths, the chapter also draws attention to improvements in the collection of data. Indeed, the availability of more refined data allows for more accurate estimates and for the unpacking of patterns in lethal violence (see Box 2.2). To some extent, improvements in the collection and monitoring of national data on lethal violence for the period 2004–12 may be linked to efforts under way in the context of the post-2015 development agenda, its proposed goal on peaceful and inclusive societies, and associated targets and indicators (see Chapter One).

Figure 2.7 Average regional violent death rates per 100,000 population, 2004–09 vs. 2007–12

^{Source: Geneva Declaration Secretariat (2014)}

While this chapter focuses on the years 2007–12, it also considers significant violent death counts that were reported after the period under review, such as those related to the ongoing conflict in Syria and the recent crisis in the Central African Republic. This edition of the GBAV does not cover the issue of indirect deaths, such as those resulting from the consequences of violence, including a lack of access to medical care, clean water, or proper sanitation.²

The chapter finds that:

• At least 508,000 people died annually as a result of lethal violence in the period 2007–12, corresponding to an average rate of 7.4 persons killed per 100,000 population. This figure comprises approximately 70,000 direct conflict deaths, 377,000 intentional homicides, 42,000 unintentional homicides, and 19,000 deaths due to legal interventions.
• More than one in ten violent deaths around the world occurs in conflict settings. Intentional homicides account for nearly three out of four violent deaths in the world.
• The 18 countries with the highest violent death rates are home to a mere 4 per cent of the world’s population but account for nearly one-quarter (24 per cent) of all violent deaths in the world.
• A comparison of GBAV data for the periods 2004–09 and 2007–12 reveals reductions in the numbers of intentional homicides (from 396,000 to 377,000), unintentional homicides (from 54,000 to 42,000), and killings during legal interventions (from 21,000 to 19,000), but a significant increase in direct conflict deaths (from 55,000 to 70,000).
• In 2012, the latest year for which data is available, 37 countries exhibited lethal violence rates higher than 10 per 100,000. Only 13 of these countries were experiencing a conflict or had recently emerged from one.
• In 2012, the countries with the highest rates of lethal violence per 100,000 were Syria (180.2), Honduras (90.4), and Venezuela (72.2).
• The sub-regions most affected by lethal violence are—in decreasing order—Central
  America (with a rate of violent 33.6 deaths per 100,000 population), Southern Africa (31.2), the Caribbean (20.5), and South America (17.0).
• The sub-regions with the greatest increase in the violent death rates per 100,000 population from 2004–09 to 2007–12 are Northern Africa (94.8 per cent increase), Central America (15.7 per cent), and Southern Africa (13.8 per cent).
• Globally, firearms are used in 46.3 per cent of all homicides and in an estimated 32.3 per cent of direct conflict deaths. That means that firearms are used in 44.1 per cent of all violent deaths, or an annual average of nearly 197,000
  deaths for the period 2007–12.
• Central America, the Caribbean, and South America suffer from the highest firearm homicide shares (above 50 per cent) and exhibit the highest firearm homicide rates.

 

^{1 For a full presentation of the ‘unified approach’, see Geneva Declaration Secretariat (2011, pp. 44–51).
2 The GBAV 2008 finds that for each direct conflict death, there are at least four indirect conflict deaths in contemporary armed conflicts (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2008, p. 32).}